Geopolitical Analysis: The UN’s Delayed Two-state Solution Conference

Location:

New York City

Executive Summary

The delayed UN conference on the two-state solution between Israel and Palestine is set to take place on Monday, July 28, 2025, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York.
Co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and France, the conference is expected to discuss a two-state solution of urgent importance.
Israel has already denounced the conference and will not attend, while the United States claims that it is a “gift to Hamas” and has boycotted the conference as well.
The UN initially scheduled the conference in June, but it was postponed due to further instability in the Middle East, with the war between Israel and Iran.

Importance

Although delayed, the UN conference provides a significant arena for discussing the potential end of the 22-month war between Hamas and Israel and to pursue a diplomatic future between Israel and Palestine. However, its effectiveness is highly constrained by the lack of support from the United States, a critical actor whose backing is crucial for facilitating an actionable stop in the conflict. More importantly, Israel, one of the key parties in the two-state solution, has refused to acknowledge or participate. While the UN conference, together with Saudi Arabia and France, reflects commendable intentions, the prospects for an actionable two-state solution remain far distant at this time.

Analysis

Political

Without the United States’ support and Israel’s acknowledgment and participation, there is likely a lack of leverage to back the conference and the two-state solution, in general.

Diplomatic

There is limited diplomatic support without the key actors involved, Israel and the United States.

Security

Prepare for potential violent protests outside the UN headquarters in New York City, at universities, and in other areas of the city, both before and after the conference.

Regional

Without the United States and Israel’s support, Saudi Arabia and France are left to assume central roles in mediation and will likely shape the peace process.
Ongoing regional conflicts, such as those between Hamas and Israel and Israel and Iran, will likely continue to overpower the peace process for a two-state solution.