Security Brief: 16 Afghans Detained In Türkiye
Date: October 18, 2025 Location: Ağrı and Kocaeli Provinces, Türkiye Situation: 16 Afghans Detained in Türkiye Threat Level: Moderate Security Brief: The anti-migrant smuggling and border security units in Türkiye are almost certain to maintain stringent operations against irregular migration from Afghanistan. In the latest operation, 10 Afghan migrants were detained in Ağrı Province and 6 in Kocaeli Province. It is unlikely that smugglers will cease their operations of moving Afghan migrants through the country. Human rights groups and activists have criticized Ankara’s detention and deportation of migrants. Türkiye’s efforts to fight irregular migration are highly likely to continue because of its long eastern border with Iran, which smugglers use as a route to move Afghan migrants. Ağrı and Kocaeli Provinces, in the eastern region, are essential transit routes for migrants as they head towards Europe.
Geopolitical Analysis: Tunisian Uprising Escalates Amid President’s One-Man Rule
Location: Tunis, Tunisia Executive Summary In Tunis, protesters fill the streets, boldly standing up against the president. Their urgent chants of “The Republic is a large prison” and “The people want the fall of the regime” on Friday, July 25, and subsequent transport strike on Wednesday, July 30, underscore the intense political, social, human rights, and economic crisis the country is facing. These protests, following four years of President Kais Saied’s one-man rule with mass arrests of his opposition, corruption, economic crisis, and destruction of democratic arenas, are a reflection of Tunisians’ breaking point and their demand for democratic change. Importance More than a decade ago, Tunisians overthrew a long-held authoritarian regime, triggering the Arab Spring that spread across the North African region and most Arab states. Today, Tunisia is facing a new wave of authoritarianism. The government, for four years, continued to execute political crackdowns through politically motivated trials against the president’s opposition, suppression of social freedoms, corruption, human rights abuses, and, most importantly, a severe economic crisis. The current state of Tunisia poses an extreme threat to destabilize the country, and this can spill over across the region. Analysis Political The president’s continued political crackdown is likely to wipe out democratic arenas. The protests are likely to increase clashes between police and civilians. The protests are likely to increase political divisions. Diplomatic There is limited international coverage of the ongoing protests in the country, which is highly likely to reduce international awareness and the pressure for regime change. Security Continued protests are likely to increase violent clashes between the police and civilians. The increased political, social, and economic instability is likely to trigger radicalization. Extremists in the country are likely to use the ongoing instability to fuel their extremism and recruit from vulnerable communities to conduct violent activities. Regional The ongoing instability in the country is unlikely to spill over to neighboring countries and/or the Arab states. Cross-border risks are unlikely with Libya and Algeria. Migration to Europe or other Arab states is likely to increase. Strategic Recommendations Enhance monitoring to detect protest escalations and possible violent government response. Develop contingency plans to address potential spikes in violence by extremist groups exploiting the country’s instability to fuel radicalization. Prepare strategies to manage migration caused by the increased displacement toward Europe, including Italy, France, Portugal, and Spain, as well as neighboring countries of Libya and Algeria. Immediately escalate diplomatic engagement to heighten international awareness and accelerate efforts for conflict de-escalation. Support capacity-building group initiatives aimed at rebuilding democratic institutions that the government has halted. References Al Jazeera. (2025, July 26). Tunisia is an ‘open-air prison’, say protesters at anti-President Saied march. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/26/tunisia-an-open-air-prison-say-protesters-at-anti-president-saied-march Amara, T. (2025, July 30). Transport strike in Tunisia adds to pressure on the president. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/transport-strike-tunisia-adds-pressure-president-2025-07-30/ Amnesty International. (2025, July 28). Tunisia: Mass convictions in ‘Conspiracy Case 2’ deepen rule of law crisis. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/07/tunisia-mass-convictions-in-conspiracy-case-2-deepen-rule-of-law-crisis/
Geopolitical Analysis: The UN’s Delayed Two-state Solution Conference
Location: New York City Executive Summary The delayed UN conference on the two-state solution between Israel and Palestine is set to take place on Monday, July 28, 2025, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. Co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and France, the conference is expected to discuss a two-state solution of urgent importance. Israel has already denounced the conference and will not attend, while the United States claims that it is a “gift to Hamas” and has boycotted the conference as well. The UN initially scheduled the conference in June, but it was postponed due to further instability in the Middle East, with the war between Israel and Iran. Importance Although delayed, the UN conference provides a significant arena for discussing the potential end of the 22-month war between Hamas and Israel and to pursue a diplomatic future between Israel and Palestine. However, its effectiveness is highly constrained by the lack of support from the United States, a critical actor whose backing is crucial for facilitating an actionable stop in the conflict. More importantly, Israel, one of the key parties in the two-state solution, has refused to acknowledge or participate. While the UN conference, together with Saudi Arabia and France, reflects commendable intentions, the prospects for an actionable two-state solution remain far distant at this time. Analysis Political Without the United States’ support and Israel’s acknowledgment and participation, there is likely a lack of leverage to back the conference and the two-state solution, in general. Diplomatic There is limited diplomatic support without the key actors involved, Israel and the United States. Security Prepare for potential violent protests outside the UN headquarters in New York City, at universities, and in other areas of the city, both before and after the conference. Regional Without the United States and Israel’s support, Saudi Arabia and France are left to assume central roles in mediation and will likely shape the peace process. Ongoing regional conflicts, such as those between Hamas and Israel and Israel and Iran, will likely continue to overpower the peace process for a two-state solution. References Associated Press. (2025, July 28). UN meeting on two-state solution for Israel, Palestinians begins. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/un-meeting-palestinians-twostate-israel-conflict-us-1ca1c5953ca31f76682276fa024a381b Reuters. (2025, July 28). Ministers gather at UN for delayed meeting on Israel-Palestinians. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ministers-gather-un-delayed-meeting-israel-palestinians-2025-07-28/
Geopolitical Analysis: Syria Approaches Its First Post-Assad Election in October
Location: Damascus, Syria Executive Summary Syria is preparing for its elections to the People’s Assembly, the country’s legislative body, which is responsible for creating and passing laws, overseeing the budget, and monitoring the government. The elections aim at a broader political reform. International attention is focused on participation and transparency. Importance The upcoming election represents the country’s first democratic process, and its success is critical to determining Syria’s move towards substantial political reform. President Ahmed al-Sharaa emphasizes the importance of free elections for all the Syrian people, denounces denominational divisions, ensures that women are represented and can actively participate, and ensures that the electoral process is transparent, with oversight from local communities and international organizations. Analysis Political There are currently no publicly stated shifts in legislative practices in the future. Political participation is anticipated; however, the current administration’s authoritative dominance is expected. Oppositions are unlikely and are to remain limited or absent. Women’s participation in elections and representation in the legislative body, with specific positions, is insufficiently documented. Diplomatic International support from countries will likely vary; other countries opposing or have yet to broadly engage and recognize the current administration will likely not support the election results. International organizations’ support will likely vary; other organizations opposing the current administration will likely raise concerns over human rights abuses, women’s rights, and question the inclusivity of non-muslim communities. Security The ongoing conflict in Southern Syria involving the Druze, a minority in Syria, and the Bedouin will likely present security risks before, during, or after elections. Security will likely increase its presence during the electoral process, specifically in urban areas with significant populations and those known to be highly vulnerable to sectarian tensions. Interruptions to both digital and non-digital processes during the election are likely to affect the operation’s flow across the country. They will likely prompt concerns about the transparency and legitimacy of the election results. Regional Regional responses will likely align with their political interests and remain unchanged even after the election. Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, countries that have borders with Syria, are likely to monitor the election process for potential border tensions, violent escalation, and any changes in refugee returns after the election. References Syrian Arab News Agency. (2024, July 28). Al-Ahmad: People’s Assembly elections are scheduled to occur between September 15 and 20. Syrian Arab News Agency. https://sana.sy/en/?p=366221