Location:
Damascus, Syria
Executive Summary
- Syria is preparing for its elections to the People’s Assembly, the country’s legislative body, which is responsible for creating and passing laws, overseeing the budget, and monitoring the government.
- The elections aim at a broader political reform.
- International attention is focused on participation and transparency.
Importance
The upcoming election represents the country’s first democratic process, and its success is critical to determining Syria’s move towards substantial political reform. President Ahmed al-Sharaa emphasizes the importance of free elections for all the Syrian people, denounces denominational divisions, ensures that women are represented and can actively participate, and ensures that the electoral process is transparent, with oversight from local communities and international organizations.
Analysis
Political
- There are currently no publicly stated shifts in legislative practices in the future.
- Political participation is anticipated; however, the current administration’s authoritative dominance is expected.
- Oppositions are unlikely and are to remain limited or absent.
- Women’s participation in elections and representation in the legislative body, with specific positions, is insufficiently documented.
Diplomatic
- International support from countries will likely vary; other countries opposing or have yet to broadly engage and recognize the current administration will likely not support the election results.
- International organizations’ support will likely vary; other organizations opposing the current administration will likely raise concerns over human rights abuses, women’s rights, and question the inclusivity of non-muslim communities.
Security
- The ongoing conflict in Southern Syria involving the Druze, a minority in Syria, and the Bedouin will likely present security risks before, during, or after elections.
- Security will likely increase its presence during the electoral process, specifically in urban areas with significant populations and those known to be highly vulnerable to sectarian tensions.
- Interruptions to both digital and non-digital processes during the election are likely to affect the operation’s flow across the country. They will likely prompt concerns about the transparency and legitimacy of the election results.
Regional
- Regional responses will likely align with their political interests and remain unchanged even after the election.
- Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, countries that have borders with Syria, are likely to monitor the election process for potential border tensions, violent escalation, and any changes in refugee returns after the election.
References
Syrian Arab News Agency. (2024, July 28). Al-Ahmad: People’s Assembly elections are scheduled to occur between September 15 and 20. Syrian Arab News Agency. https://sana.sy/en/?p=366221
