Location:
Tehran, Iran
Executive Summary:
- A trilateral meeting involving China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia on December 9, 2025, is a pivotal development in Middle Eastern diplomacy.
- The trilateral meeting is part of the Beijing Agreement, a 2023 China-mediated initiative aimed at restoring relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and promoting regional stability, which has significant implications for regional security and Chinese energy interests.
- Iran and Saudi Arabia expressed their commitment to renewed dialogue and regional de-escalation.
- They urged an immediate stop to Israel’s actions in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran.
- They expressed support for Yemen’s political and economic progress in line with UN principles.
- The trilateral meeting failed to address whether the proxy conflict in Yemen, where both Iran and Saudi Arabia historically engaged in strategic rivalry and dominance, will de-escalate or terminate.
- China’s role as mediator aims to reassure Iran and Saudi Arabia of its commitment to peace, regional security, and stability.
Importance
Saudi Arabia and Iran’s diplomatic ties, if fully restored through the Beijing Agreement, are essential to the region’s peace, security, and stability. Reducing proxy conflicts in several states, such as Yemen and Lebanon, enhances not only peace within those states but also regional stability and security, enabling conflict de-escalation, political dialogue, and post-conflict civilian rehabilitation. An improved security environment in the region creates a path for economic recovery. In turn, a peaceful, secure, and stable region builds confidence in the global energy supply and reduces the risk of supply disruptions for China’s strategic interests in the Middle East.
Analysis
Political
- While the trilateral meeting may open new avenues for dialogue, persistent regional volatility from ongoing conflicts makes its longevity uncertain.
- A reduction in proxy conflicts is possible but remains uncertain, as local actors may not immediately align with state-level commitments and are likely to pursue their own agenda.
- The trilateral meeting is unlikely to produce outcomes that alter regional alliances or the international order.
Diplomatic
- The diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will likely improve regional security and stability, although their durability remains uncertain.
- China is highly likely to remain a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia, given its status as the top oil consumer of both states.
Security
- The trilateral meeting will likely reduce the immediate risk of confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia; however, the broader security effects of such remain uncertain due to persistent proxy conflicts across the region.
- The conflict in Yemen will likely continue.
- Proxy conflicts in Syria and Lebanon will likely continue and pose more security risks in the region.
- The civilian populations in conflict-affected cities will continue to face humanitarian and security challenges.
Regional
- China’s mediation will likely reduce the United States’ influence in the Middle East; however, the extent of this shift remains uncertain. The United States remains the top supplier of arms to Saudi Arabia, and its military and strategic allies in the region are longstanding.
- A more multipolar regional order in the Middle East is likely to reshape the geopolitical landscape, with Iran and Saudi Arabia as the competing regional superpowers and the United States and China as external actors in the Middle East.
References
Iran International. (2025, December 9). Iran says nuclear oversight rules need to be updated for war conditions. Iran International. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202512096593
Salih, H., & Abu Shamala, R. (2025, December 9). Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China call for a comprehensive political solution in Yemen under UN auspices. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-iran-china-call-for-comprehensive-political-solution-in-yemen-under-un-auspices/3766541
